[h=1]Fantasy Forecaster: Week 24[/h]By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com
On tap: Welcome to the wild, wacky world of stretch-run baseball, as the theme for September 2013, thus far, has been "unpredictability." Eleven of the 30 teams made Week 23 -- that's this past week (still in progress) -- rotation alterations after such point that weekly-league lineups locked (Monday, 7 p.m. ET), six of them National League squads … and remember that there were three days to go in that scoring period at publishing time. That's also discounting the fact that, between our Friday publish time and Monday's weekly kickoff, there were several other teams that made tweaks accounted in the weekend's updates.
In short, if you've hung in your league's race for this long, first, congratulations. Second, take nothing for granted. Things change quickly in September, and the Forecaster merely projects, giving you a guideline with which to set your lineup.
At-bats and innings are critical this time of year: Just ask Donnie Murphy, who already has 10 home runs in roughly six weeks' action, and who would never have been a relevant fantasy player if not for his Chicago Cubs scrambling to find somebody -- anybody -- to fill their third-base vacancy. He got a job and with it he has thrived. The bottom line: A player playing beats a player who might not; stick to teams with lineup/rotation/closer clarity wherever you can.
Motivation -- the "quest for the postseason" -- is always a factor this time of year, so here's a rundown, as of the morning of Sept. 13, of teams that remain in the tightest playoff races (5-game differential or less) entering Week 24:
• Oakland Athletics (3 1/2 games ahead in American League West)
• Texas Rangers (3 1/2 games behind in AL West, 2 GA for AL wild card 1, 3 GA for AL wild card 2)
• Tampa Bay Rays (2 GB for AL wild card 1, 1 GA for AL wild card 2)
• New York Yankees (1 GB in AL wild card)
• Cleveland Indians (1 1/2 GB in AL wild card)
• Baltimore Orioles (2 1/2 GB in AL wild card)
• Kansas City Royals (2 1/2 GB in AL wild card)
• Pittsburgh Pirates (tied for National League Central lead/NL wild card 1, 2 1/2 GA for NL wild card 2)
• St. Louis Cardinals (tied for NL Central lead/NL wild card 1, 2 1/2 GA for NL wild card 2)
• Cincinnati Reds (2 1/2 GB in NL Central/for NL wild card 1)
Let's not discount the surging Washington Nationals' chances, however. Pending their Sept. 13-15 weekend results, they entered that series 5 1/2 games back of the Reds for an NL wild card, they had won six consecutive games and 17 of their past 22, and they now face a seven-game week entirely played at home against the playoff-destined-and-resting Atlanta Braves and dead-last-and-now-sans-Jose Fernandez Miami Marlins teams. The Nationals match up remarkably well accordingly, and they're plenty driven to make an out-of-nowhere charge toward the postseason.
Quick click by section, if you're seeking advice in a specific area:
ESPN lineup deadlines | Interleague impact | Projected starting pitchers
Pitching scuttlebutt | Week 23 pitcher rankings | Pitching advantages
Hitting ratings | Hitting advantages
[h=3]ESPN leagues: Lineup deadlines[/h]Monday begins Round 2/the League Championship round of ESPN's standard head-to-head leagues. It is a 14-day week in which the Round 1/Weeks 22-23 winners square off for all the marbles, with consolation games for all other seeds. You can see all our playoff rules for ESPN standard leagues right here.
You'll have plenty of time with which to set your first lineups of this championship round -- or "Week 24," for those in any league -- as the first games on Monday begin at 7:05 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals, Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates. From there, the vast majority of the week's games are at night -- schools are open now, so it makes sense -- as Tuesday's first games begin at 7:05 p.m. ET; there are two Wednesday day games (the first at 2:10 p.m. ET); six Thursday day games (the first at 12:35 p.m. ET); one Friday day game (2:20 p.m. ET); and only four Saturday day games (the first at 1:05 p.m. ET).
[h=3]Interleague impact[/h]This week's interleague series:
• Cincinnati Reds at Houston Astros (3 games, Monday-Wednesday)
• San Francisco Giants at New York Yankees (3 games, Friday-Sunday)
Thank you, Major League Baseball schedulers, for limiting interleague play to only two series, both of them National League teams visiting American League cities, in a critical Week 24. This means no lost at-bats for designated hitters; it actually means increasedplaying time for NL hitters slotting in at DH.
While the Reds haven't made maximum use of the DH in AL cities earlier this year -- Xavier Paul (3), Chris Heisey (2), Jack Hannahan (1) and Devin Mesoraco (1) have been their DHs in their past seven such contests -- things have changed this time around now that Ryan Ludwick is healthy. The DH grants them the opportunity to use both Ludwick and Heisey in the same lineup, though the fact that the Astros are scheduled to start two right-handers in the series might convince manager Dusty Baker to start left-handed Xavier Paul in one (or both) of them. It's good news for Ludwick, at least, as he has started just five of the team's past nine games but might stand a chance at a full six starts this week, considering the Pittsburgh Pirates, their weekend opponent, plan to start two left-handers in that series.
The Giants have used the DH as a "rest day" opportunity thus far this year, with Buster Posey (3), Marco Scutaro (3) and Pablo Sandoval (1) their past starters there, and Posey's recent finger injury might make this a natural chance for them to shift him there for three, paving the way for Hector Sanchez to catch. Sanchez is only of relevance in the deepest of NL-only leagues, however.
[h=3]Projected starting pitchers[/h]The chart below lists each of the 30 MLB teams' schedules and projected starting pitchers, and provides a matchup rating for each day's starter. Pitchers scheduled to start at least twice this week are in gold/beige boxes.
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[h=3]Pitching scuttlebutt[/h]• The Chicago White Sox, Houston Astros, Minnesota Twins, Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets are all currently utilizing six-man rotations, with only the Mets giving any indication of reverting to five in the near future.
• Bud Norris (elbow) was scratched from his Sept. 13 start for the Baltimore Orioles, but claims he'll miss only the one turn. Jason Hammel filled in for him, but it is unclear when or for whom Norris will return this week; this is the reason for the "TBD" in that open spot Thursday.
• Felix Doubront, who was skipped in the Boston Red Sox's Week 23 rotation, is expected to make a start at some point this week. It is unclear when or for whom he'll join the rotation, or whether the team will go to a six-man rotation. One consideration: Jake Peavysuffered a wrist injury during his Sept. 12 start, and is day-to-day.
• With Jarred Cosart having reached his innings cap, the Astros will replace him in the rotation with Erik Bedard beginning Monday.
• Though the Kansas City Royals haven't officially announced his next starting assignment,Danny Duffy had his Sept. 13 start skipped due to a Sept. 12 off day, and the most logical order would have him moved back to Tuesday.
• It remains entirely unclear when the Seattle Mariners will restore Felix Hernandez(oblique) to their rotation, if they do so at all. Before Hernandez's injury, they were utilizing a six-man rotation, and they might resume it if he pitches this week.
• Nick Tepesch hasn't been officially confirmed for the assignment, but Texas Rangersmanager Ron Washington said Sept. 10 that the rookie is the most likely candidate to assume Tuesday's open rotation spot.
• The Atlanta Braves, thanks to their substantial lead in the NL East division, have begun resting regulars, their rotation members especially. Freddy Garcia and David Hale made back-to-back spot starts Sept. 12-13, and they could factor again into the team's rotation this week, what with Paul Maholm (elbow) ailing and the team trying to keep Julio Teheran's innings in check.
• Tony Cingrani (back) left his Sept. 10 start early, forcing the Cincinnati Reds to push his rotation spot back to Tuesday. It's unclear whether Cingrani, or Johnny Cueto (lat) would be ready to pitch then.
• The Colorado Rockies, looking to keep Chad Bettis' innings in check, will replace him in the rotation with Roy Oswalt beginning Sept. 14.
• With Jose Fernandez's season complete and Nate Eovaldi battling a back injury, the Miami Marlins' rotation is uncertain entering the week. Eovaldi could be a candidate to start Monday, with Sam Dyson the likely fall-back, but it's then unclear whether recent fill-insBrian Flynn and/or Brad Hand would remain in the rotation, or whether the team will use a six-man rotation.
• New York Mets manager Terry Collins said Sept. 12 that the team will likely utilize a five-man rotation through season's end, but it's unclear who will exit their rotation this week.Zack Wheeler might be a candidate as he approaches his innings cap, but Carlos Torres is most likely to be skipped for Week 24, in which case Wheeler would pick up a second start.
[h=3]Tristan's Week 23 pitcher rankings: Top 75[/h]1. Cliff Lee (PHI) -- Mon-MIA (TBD), Sun-NYM (Gee)
2. Zack Greinke (LAD) -- Tue-@ARI (Corbin), Sun-@SD (Ross)
3. Anibal Sanchez (DET) -- Tue-SEA (Maurer), Sun-CWS (Sale)
4. Homer Bailey (CIN) -- Fri-@PIT (Liriano)
5. Clayton Kershaw (LAD) -- Wed-@ARI (McCarthy)
6. Cole Hamels (PHI) -- Fri-NYM (Matsuzaka)
7. Stephen Strasburg (WSH) -- Wed-ATL (Garcia)
8. Ricky Nolasco (LAD) -- Thu-@ARI (Miley)
9. Gio Gonzalez (WSH) -- Thu-MIA (Alvarez)
10. Max Scherzer (DET) -- Fri-CWS (Santiago)
11. Madison Bumgarner (SF) -- Thu-@NYM (Niese)
12. Yu Darvish (TEX) -- Thu-@TB (Moore)
13. James Shields (KC) -- Mon-CLE (Kazmir), Sun-TEX (Tepesch)
14. Jarrod Parker (OAK) -- Fri-MIN (Albers)
15. David Price (TB) -- Fri-BAL (Tillman)
16. Mat Latos (CIN) -- Wed-@HOU (Peacock)
17. Francisco Liriano (PIT) -- Fri-CIN (Bailey)
18. Jordan Zimmermann (WSH) -- Fri-MIA (Turner)
19. Andrew Cashner (SD) -- Mon-@PIT (Burnett), Sat-LAD (Ryu)
20. Jake Peavy (BOS) -- Wed-BAL (Chen)
21. Justin Verlander (DET) -- Wed-SEA (Iwakuma)
22. Adam Wainwright (STL) -- Wed-@COL (Chatwood)
23. Chris Sale (CWS) -- Sun-@DET (Sanchez)
24. Sonny Gray (OAK) -- Mon-LAA (Wilson), Sat-MIN (Hernandez)
25. Alex Cobb (TB) -- Mon-TEX (Garza), Sat-BAL (Gonzalez)
26. A.J. Burnett (PIT) -- Mon-SD (Cashner), Sat-CIN (Arroyo)
27. Jhoulys Chacin (COL) -- Fri-ARI (Delgado)
28. Hyun-Jin Ryu (LAD) -- Mon-@ARI (Cahill), Sat-@SD (Cashner)
29. Patrick Corbin (ARI) -- Tue-LAD (Greinke), Sun-@COL (Nicasio)
30. Michael Wacha (STL) -- Thu-@COL (Oswalt)
31. Ubaldo Jimenez (CLE) -- Thu-HOU (Oberholtzer)
32. A.J. Griffin (OAK) -- Tue-LAA (Richards), Sun-MIN (Hendriks)
33. C.J. Wilson (LAA) -- Mon-@OAK (Gray), Sun-SEA (Maurer)
34. R.A. Dickey (TOR) -- Tue-NYY (Pettitte), Sun-@BOS (Dempster)
35. Jered Weaver (LAA) -- Fri-SEA (Ramirez)
36. Jon Lester (BOS) -- Fri-TOR (Rogers)
37. Chris Tillman (BAL) -- Fri-@TB (Price)
38. Kris Medlen (ATL) -- Sat-@CHC (Wood)
39. Gerrit Cole (PIT) -- Thu-SD (Erlin)
40. Zack Wheeler (NYM) -- Tue-SF (Petit)
41. Julio Teheran (ATL) -- Sun-@CHC (Jackson)
42. Matt Cain (SF) -- Wed-@NYM (Harang)
43. Andy Pettitte (NYY) -- Tue-@TOR (Dickey), Sun-SF (Petit)
44. Jonathon Niese (NYM) -- Thu-SF (Bumgarner)
45. Mike Minor (ATL) -- Mon-@WSH (Haren)
46. Clay Buchholz (BOS) -- Sat-TOR (Buehrle)
47. Matt Moore (TB) -- Thu-TEX (Darvish)
48. Matt Garza (TEX) -- Mon-@TB (Cobb), Sat-@KC (Guthrie)
49. Marco Estrada (MIL) -- Tue-CHC (Samardzija)
50. Ivan Nova (NYY) -- Sat-SF (Vogelsong)
51. Shelby Miller (STL) -- Fri-@MIL (Hellweg)
52. Bartolo Colon (OAK) -- Thu-MIN (Correia)
53. Scott Feldman (BAL) -- Tue-@BOS (Dempster), Sun-@TB (Hellickson)
54. Scott Kazmir (CLE) -- Mon-@KC (Shields), Sat-HOU (Clemens)
55. CC Sabathia (NYY) -- Fri-SF (Lincecum)
56. Travis Wood (CHC) -- Sat-ATL (Medlen)
57. Tanner Roark (WSH) -- Tue-ATL (Wood), Sun-MIA (TBD)
58. Corey Kluber (CLE) -- Tue-@KC (Duffy), Sun-HOU (Bedard)
59. Yovani Gallardo (MIL) -- Sat-STL (Lynn)
60. Danny Salazar (CLE) -- Wed-@KC (Chen)
61. John Lackey (BOS) -- Thu-BAL (TBD)
62. Ervin Santana (KC) -- Fri-TEX (Perez)
63. Rick Porcello (DET) -- Mon-SEA (Saunders), Sat-CWS (Rienzo)
64. Hisashi Iwakuma (SEA) -- Wed-@DET (Verlander)
65. Chris Archer (TB) -- Wed-TEX (Holland)
66. Dillon Gee (NYM) -- Sun-@PHI (Lee)
67. Yusmeiro Petit (SF) -- Tue-@NYM (Wheeler), Sun-@NYY (Pettitte)
68. Doug Fister (DET) -- Thu-SEA (Paxton)
69. Jeff Samardzija (CHC) -- Tue-@MIL (Estrada)
70. Jose Quintana (CWS) -- Tue-MIN (Pelfrey)
71. Tyson Ross (SD) -- Tue-@PIT (Locke), Sun-LAD (Greinke)
72. Dan Haren (WSH) -- Mon-ATL (Minor), Sat-MIA (Koehler)
73. Mike Leake (CIN) -- Mon-@HOU (Bedard), Sun-@PIT (Locke)
74. Bronson Arroyo (CIN) -- Sat-@PIT (Burnett)
75. Joe Kelly (STL) -- Tue-@COL (Nicasio), Sun-@MIL (Peralta)
Two-start options for AL-/NL-only leagues:
Trevor Cahill (ARI) -- Mon-LAD (Ryu), Sat-@COL (De La Rosa)
Jorge De La Rosa (COL) -- Mon-STL (Lynn), Sat-ARI (Cahill)
Edwin Jackson (CHC) -- Mon-@MIL (Peralta), Sun-ATL (Teheran)
Jeff Locke (PIT) -- Tue-SD (Ross), Sun-CIN (Leake)
Lance Lynn (STL) -- Mon-@COL (De La Rosa), Sat-@MIL (Gallardo)
Juan Nicasio (COL) -- Tue-STL (Kelly), Sun-ARI (Corbin)
Wily Peralta (MIL) -- Mon-CHC (Jackson), Sun-STL (Kelly)
No-thank-yous, among two-start pitchers:
Erik Bedard (HOU) -- Mon-CIN (Leake), Sun-@CLE (Kluber)
Ryan Dempster (BOS) -- Tue-BAL (Feldman), Sun-TOR (Dickey)
Jeremy Hellickson (TB) -- Tue-TEX (Tepesch), Sun-BAL (Feldman)
Liam Hendriks (MIN) -- Mon-@CWS (Johnson), Sun-@OAK (Griffin)
Brandon Maurer (SEA) -- Tue-@DET (Sanchez), Sun-@LAA (Wilson)
Joe Saunders (SEA) -- Mon-@DET (Porcello), Sat-@LAA (Williams)
Nick Tepesch (TEX) -- Tue-@TB (Hellickson), Sun-@KC (Shields)
[h=3]Pitching advantages[/h]• Streaming opportunities and the Cleveland Indians -- a point also raised in this week's "60 Feet 6 Inches" -- are a significant theme of Week 24. This is a team that, despite no individual starter being owned in more than 50.3 percent of ESPN leagues, has managed the majors' best strikeout rate (24.5 percent of batters faced) and ninth-best starters' ERA (3.78) since the beginning of August.
Kansas City Royals and Houston Astros matchups are polarizing ones at least on the strikeout side; the Astros have been the majors' most strikeout-prone offense this season, the Royals the least, and those facts don't change whether you run the statistical splits as full-season or since the All-Star break. The Royals, though, have mere .271/.324/.392 triple-slash rates for the majors' No. 17 wOBA (weighted on-base average) since the All-Star break, so they're still a favorable matchup.
Conveniently, Ubaldo Jimenez (23.6 percent K rate), Scott Kazmir (22.6 percent) and Corey Kluber (22.7) are all lined up to make starts during the Astros series, with both Kazmir and Kluber set for two starts (their first against the Royals). That makes all three well worth adding even in shallow mixed formats, especially as Jimenez is 6-of-9 in quality starts with a 1.94 ERA and 27.0 percent K rate since the All-Star break, Kazmir has a 3.67 ERA and 24.0 percent K rate during that same span and Kluber has a 2.68 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in six starts during that time. You'll find Kazmir and Kluber among my "Streamer's Delight" picks below; it's an expanded list this week.
• Conversely, temper your expectations with St. Louis Cardinals pitchers, as the team is taking a more conservative approach with its youngsters' innings plus plays four games at Colorado's Coors Field, not to mention three more in another hitter-friendly venue, Milwaukee's Miller Park. Shorter outings for starters Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha and Shelby Miller, as well as lighter relief usage for relievers Trevor Rosenthal, Kevin Siegrist and Carlos Martinez, might result in diminished win/save potential for the team as a whole going up against more hitter-friendly matchups.
This isn't to say that Cardinals pitchers should all sit; there's a difference between that and "tempering expectations," as my rankings above show. Adam Wainwright, after all, is 2-for-2 in quality starts with a 1.08 ERA in his career at Coors Field. Wacha's fantasy appeal Thursday at Coors might hinge upon his Sept. 14 performance; he had back-to-back quality starts and had an active streak of 19 2/3 scoreless innings entering that assignment. And Miller has a 2.38 ERA but also a 1.50 WHIP in two starts at Miller Park this season.
• Yusmeiro Petit, 3-for-5 in quality starts this season and two turns removed from a near-perfect game, has a polarizing set of matchups in New York. His stuff has generated far more swings and misses than anyone could've expected -- he has a 29.6 percent K rate and 26 percent miss rate on swings thus far -- and he'll first face a New York Mets team that has whiffed the third-most often since the All-Star break (22.2 percent rate). But as an extreme fly-baller -- he has a 41.5 percent rate -- he's in severe danger of a correction to his 2.9 home run/fly ball percentage during his weekend start at New York's Yankee Stadium against a surging New York Yankees offense. Petit is a brilliant mix-and-match candidate in NL-only leagues, but his modest ranking this week accounts for the risk of start No. 2.
• This could be the week that the Oakland Athletics separate themselves in the AL West race, as their underrated pitching staff gets seven games at home at pitching-friendly O.co Coliseum. As a team, Athletics pitchers are 16-of-29 in quality starts, 11-of-14 in saves and have a 3.29 ERA at home since the All-Star break, each of those placing them among the game's top 10 during that span.
About the only risky play among Athletics this week is Dan Straily, who is 2-of-5 in quality starts with a 6.91 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in his career against the Los Angeles Angels. The standout play is two-start pitcher Sonny Gray, who is 5-of-7 in quality starts with a 2.63 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 26.6 percent K rate thus far in the majors, and who defeated theMinnesota Twins, his weekend opponent, behind five innings of two-run, seven-strikeout baseball on Sept. 11.
• Don't underestimate Andrew Cashner's improved strikeout rate since the All-Star break; his 19.4 percent number is a lot closer to his 19.7 percent major league or 22.1 percent minor league rates than the 16.2 percent rate he had in the first half. On paper his matchups might seem treacherous, but look closer: Pittsburgh's PNC Park is one of the more pitching-friendly venues in baseball, not to mention the Pittsburgh Pirates rank 21st with a .307 team wOBA thus far in September. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Dodgers could soon be resting regulars for the postseason, not to mention Cashner is 2-of-2 in quality starts with a 1.83 ERA against them in 2013.
• Here are this week's Streamer's Delight picks -- players need to be available in at least 75 percent of ESPN leagues as of our publishing time (Fridays):
1 and 2. Scott Kazmir (HOU, Saturday) and Corey Kluber (HOU, Sunday).
3. Andrew Cashner (@PIT, Monday)
4. Edinson Volquez (@SD, Friday): Revenge! Volquez returns to San Diego's Petco Park, which he called home from 2012 until Aug. 27, and he's 12-of-20 in quality starts with a 2.85 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in his career there.
5. Rick Porcello (CWS, Saturday): His Seattle Mariners matchup on Monday is solid, but would it surprise you to learn that he has seven wins, eight quality starts, a 2.00 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in nine starts against the Chicago White Sox in 2012-13?
6. Tanner Roark (MIA, Sunday): He's riding back-to-back quality starts, including six scoreless innings against these Miami Marlins on Sept. 7.
7. Marco Estrada (CHC, Tuesday): He's 4-of-5 in quality starts with a 3.72 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 27.2 percent K rate in his career against the Chicago Cubs.
8. Kyle Kendrick (MIA, Wednesday): He has already defeated these Miami Marlins twice at home this year, and he's 10-0 with seven quality starts, a 2.18 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in his past 12 games (11 starts) against them.
[h=3]Hitting ratings[/h]The chart below lists each of the 30 teams' total number of scheduled games, home games and games versus right- and left-handed pitchers, and provides a matchup rating for the week's games in terms of overall offense, offense for left- and right-handed hitters and base stealing. Matchup ratings for each individual game are listed under the corresponding date.
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[h=3]Hitting advantages[/h]• Here are this week's "volume plays" -- defined as the teams that play the most home games, or games against left- or right-handed starters:
Home games: Detroit Tigers 7, Oakland Athletics 7, Tampa Bay Rays 7, Colorado Rockies 7,Milwaukee Brewers 7, Pittsburgh Pirates 7, Washington Nationals 7
Versus LH: Cleveland Indians 5, Detroit Tigers 4, Oakland Athletics 4, Arizona Diamondbacks3, Cincinnati Reds 3, New York Mets 3, San Francisco Giants 3
Versus RH: Chicago Cubs 7, Seattle Mariners 6, Tampa Bay Rays 6, Texas Rangers 6, Colorado Rockies 6, Milwaukee Brewers 6, Pittsburgh Pirates 6, St. Louis Cardinals 6
• Loyal Forecaster followers might recall that the Washington Nationals struggled for the majority of the year against left-handed pitchers, but consider this: In the past 30 days (Aug. 14-Sept. 12), they have .277/.355/.406 triple-slash rates with the majors' 14th-ranked wOBA (.327) against them. This is no longer a pushover squad against lefties, so there's no need to worry about the two lefty matchups this week.
It's the home games that tilt the scales in their favor, giving them a fighting chance at a playoff push. In their past 20 games at Nationals Park, the Nationals have .296/.355/.443 triple-slash rates and a .341 wOBA, ranking among the five best offensive teams at home during that span. Three Nationals in particular stand out: Adam LaRoche (owned in only 58.8 percent of ESPN leagues), a .344 hitter with two home runs in 11 games in September;Denard Span (48.7 percent), a .308/.355/.411 hitter at Nationals Park this season; andWilson Ramos (25.7), who has nine home runs and 30 RBIs in 42 games since the All-Star break.
• While the St. Louis Cardinals' pitching matchups will challenge them, their hitting matchups stack firmly in their favor. After all, the two most talented pitchers they'll face this week areJorge De La Rosa (Monday), who is dealing with finger injuries, and Yovani Gallardo, who is 1-10 with a 6.78 ERA in 16 career starts against them. Toss in those hitting-friendly venues and this is a week where the Cardinals will surely attempt to outscore their opponents.
Is this the week that Allen Craig returns from a foot injury? Perhaps, but without definitive word he's a highly risky fantasy play in leagues with weekly transactions. Craig's high likelihood of requiring rest even after his return to action, however, keeps Matt Adams in the "useful plug-in" category, and Adams remains available in 87.7 percent of ESPN leagues. A week facing six right-handed starters in extremely homer-conducive ballparks is an excellent one in which to add Adams.
• The red-hot Oakland Athletics lineup, despite playing entirely at their spacious home ballpark, also enjoy a modest bump in matchups appeal, avoiding Los Angeles Angels aceJered Weaver during their week-opening series, then getting four games against the beleaguered Minnesota Twins pitching staff.
The home-game, plus four-against-lefties, schedule stacks things in favor of many of their right-handed hitters: Breakout sensation Josh Donaldson is a .338/.404/.619 hitter against lefties and .284/.353/.515 in 72 home games this season. Among those more widely available in ESPN leagues, and attractive pickups in AL-only formats, consider Alberto Callaspo (1.9 percent owned), a lifetime .300 hitter against left-handers; Nate Freiman(0.1), a .314/.359/.471 hitter against left-handers who has started 45 of the team's 47 games against lefty starters; and Derek Norris (0.0), a lifetime .266/.347/.477 hitter against southpaws.
On tap: Welcome to the wild, wacky world of stretch-run baseball, as the theme for September 2013, thus far, has been "unpredictability." Eleven of the 30 teams made Week 23 -- that's this past week (still in progress) -- rotation alterations after such point that weekly-league lineups locked (Monday, 7 p.m. ET), six of them National League squads … and remember that there were three days to go in that scoring period at publishing time. That's also discounting the fact that, between our Friday publish time and Monday's weekly kickoff, there were several other teams that made tweaks accounted in the weekend's updates.
In short, if you've hung in your league's race for this long, first, congratulations. Second, take nothing for granted. Things change quickly in September, and the Forecaster merely projects, giving you a guideline with which to set your lineup.
At-bats and innings are critical this time of year: Just ask Donnie Murphy, who already has 10 home runs in roughly six weeks' action, and who would never have been a relevant fantasy player if not for his Chicago Cubs scrambling to find somebody -- anybody -- to fill their third-base vacancy. He got a job and with it he has thrived. The bottom line: A player playing beats a player who might not; stick to teams with lineup/rotation/closer clarity wherever you can.
Motivation -- the "quest for the postseason" -- is always a factor this time of year, so here's a rundown, as of the morning of Sept. 13, of teams that remain in the tightest playoff races (5-game differential or less) entering Week 24:
• Oakland Athletics (3 1/2 games ahead in American League West)
• Texas Rangers (3 1/2 games behind in AL West, 2 GA for AL wild card 1, 3 GA for AL wild card 2)
• Tampa Bay Rays (2 GB for AL wild card 1, 1 GA for AL wild card 2)
• New York Yankees (1 GB in AL wild card)
• Cleveland Indians (1 1/2 GB in AL wild card)
• Baltimore Orioles (2 1/2 GB in AL wild card)
• Kansas City Royals (2 1/2 GB in AL wild card)
• Pittsburgh Pirates (tied for National League Central lead/NL wild card 1, 2 1/2 GA for NL wild card 2)
• St. Louis Cardinals (tied for NL Central lead/NL wild card 1, 2 1/2 GA for NL wild card 2)
• Cincinnati Reds (2 1/2 GB in NL Central/for NL wild card 1)
Let's not discount the surging Washington Nationals' chances, however. Pending their Sept. 13-15 weekend results, they entered that series 5 1/2 games back of the Reds for an NL wild card, they had won six consecutive games and 17 of their past 22, and they now face a seven-game week entirely played at home against the playoff-destined-and-resting Atlanta Braves and dead-last-and-now-sans-Jose Fernandez Miami Marlins teams. The Nationals match up remarkably well accordingly, and they're plenty driven to make an out-of-nowhere charge toward the postseason.
Quick click by section, if you're seeking advice in a specific area:
ESPN lineup deadlines | Interleague impact | Projected starting pitchers
Pitching scuttlebutt | Week 23 pitcher rankings | Pitching advantages
Hitting ratings | Hitting advantages
[h=3]ESPN leagues: Lineup deadlines[/h]Monday begins Round 2/the League Championship round of ESPN's standard head-to-head leagues. It is a 14-day week in which the Round 1/Weeks 22-23 winners square off for all the marbles, with consolation games for all other seeds. You can see all our playoff rules for ESPN standard leagues right here.
You'll have plenty of time with which to set your first lineups of this championship round -- or "Week 24," for those in any league -- as the first games on Monday begin at 7:05 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals, Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates. From there, the vast majority of the week's games are at night -- schools are open now, so it makes sense -- as Tuesday's first games begin at 7:05 p.m. ET; there are two Wednesday day games (the first at 2:10 p.m. ET); six Thursday day games (the first at 12:35 p.m. ET); one Friday day game (2:20 p.m. ET); and only four Saturday day games (the first at 1:05 p.m. ET).
[h=3]Interleague impact[/h]This week's interleague series:
• Cincinnati Reds at Houston Astros (3 games, Monday-Wednesday)
• San Francisco Giants at New York Yankees (3 games, Friday-Sunday)
Thank you, Major League Baseball schedulers, for limiting interleague play to only two series, both of them National League teams visiting American League cities, in a critical Week 24. This means no lost at-bats for designated hitters; it actually means increasedplaying time for NL hitters slotting in at DH.
While the Reds haven't made maximum use of the DH in AL cities earlier this year -- Xavier Paul (3), Chris Heisey (2), Jack Hannahan (1) and Devin Mesoraco (1) have been their DHs in their past seven such contests -- things have changed this time around now that Ryan Ludwick is healthy. The DH grants them the opportunity to use both Ludwick and Heisey in the same lineup, though the fact that the Astros are scheduled to start two right-handers in the series might convince manager Dusty Baker to start left-handed Xavier Paul in one (or both) of them. It's good news for Ludwick, at least, as he has started just five of the team's past nine games but might stand a chance at a full six starts this week, considering the Pittsburgh Pirates, their weekend opponent, plan to start two left-handers in that series.
The Giants have used the DH as a "rest day" opportunity thus far this year, with Buster Posey (3), Marco Scutaro (3) and Pablo Sandoval (1) their past starters there, and Posey's recent finger injury might make this a natural chance for them to shift him there for three, paving the way for Hector Sanchez to catch. Sanchez is only of relevance in the deepest of NL-only leagues, however.
[h=3]Projected starting pitchers[/h]The chart below lists each of the 30 MLB teams' schedules and projected starting pitchers, and provides a matchup rating for each day's starter. Pitchers scheduled to start at least twice this week are in gold/beige boxes.
| <center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Team</center> | <center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Mon 9/16</center> | <center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Tue 9/17</center> | <center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Wed 9/18</center> | <center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Thu 9/19</center> | <center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Fri 9/20</center> | <center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Sat 9/21</center> | <center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Sun 9/22</center> |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| @BOS Feldman (RHP) P: 7 | @BOS Chen (LHP) P: 1 | @BOS TBD P: 1 | @TB Tillman (RHP) P: 7 | @TB Gonzalez (RHP) P: 5 | @TB Feldman (RHP) P: 8 | |
| BAL Dempster (RHP) P: 3 | BAL Peavy (RHP) P: 8 | BAL Lackey (RHP) P: 6 | TOR Lester (LHP) P: 7 | TOR Buchholz (RHP) P: 9 | TOR Dempster (RHP) P: 4 | |
| MIN Johnson (RHP) P: 1 | MIN Quintana (LHP) P: 6 | MIN Danks (LHP) P: 1 | @DET Santiago (LHP) P: 2 | @DET Rienzo (RHP) P: 1 | @DET Sale (LHP) P: 6 | |
| @KC Kazmir (LHP) P: 5 | @KC Kluber (RHP) P: 6 | @KC Salazar (RHP) P: 8 | HOU Jimenez (RHP) P: 8 | HOU McAllister (RHP) P: 5 | HOU Kazmir (LHP) P: 5 | HOU Kluber (RHP) P: 7 |
| SEA Porcello (RHP) P: 6 | SEA Sanchez (RHP) P: 10 | SEA Verlander (RHP) P: 8 | SEA Fister (RHP) P: 7 | CWS Scherzer (RHP) P: 10 | CWS Porcello (RHP) P: 7 | CWS Sanchez (RHP) P: 10 |
| CIN Bedard (LHP) P: 3 | CIN Lyles (RHP) P: 5 | CIN Peacock (RHP) P: 5 | @CLE Obrholtzr (LHP) P: 7 | @CLE Keuchel (LHP) P: 3 | @CLE Clemens (RHP) P: 1 | @CLE Bedard (LHP) P: 3 |
| CLE Shields (RHP) P: 8 | CLE Duffy (LHP) P: 7 | CLE Chen (LHP) P: 6 | TEX Santana (RHP) P: 5 | TEX Guthrie (RHP) P: 4 | TEX Shields (RHP) P: 7 | |
| @OAK Wilson (LHP) P: 4 | @OAK Richards (RHP) P: 5 | @OAK Vargas (LHP) P: 3 | SEA Weaver (RHP) P: 9 | SEA Williams (RHP) P: 6 | SEA Wilson (LHP) P: 7 | |
| @CWS Hendriks (RHP) P: 2 | @CWS Pelfrey (RHP) P: 5 | @CWS Diamond (LHP) P: 4 | @OAK Correia (RHP) P: 3 | @OAK Albers (LHP) P: 6 | @OAK Hernandez (LHP) P: 1 | @OAK Hendriks (RHP) P: 1 |
| @TOR Pettitte (LHP) P: 5 | @TOR Hughes (RHP) P: 3 | @TOR Kuroda (RHP) P: 4 | SF Sabathia (LHP) P: 6 | SF Nova (RHP) P: 7 | SF Pettitte (LHP) P: 6 | |
| LAA Gray (RHP) P: 8 | LAA Griffin (RHP) P: 6 | LAA Straily (RHP) P: 6 | MIN Colon (RHP) P: 8 | MIN Parker (RHP) P: 9 | MIN Gray (RHP) P: 9 | MIN Griffin (RHP) P: 7 |
| @DET Saunders (LHP) P: 1 | @DET Maurer (RHP) P: 1 | @DET Iwakuma (RHP) P: 5 | @DET Paxton (LHP) P: 4 | @LAA Ramirez (RHP) P: 5 | @LAA Saunders (LHP) P: 1 | @LAA Maurer (RHP) P: 1 |
| TEX Cobb (RHP) P: 6 | TEX Hellickson (RHP) P: 4 | TEX Archer (RHP) P: 7 | TEX Moore (LHP) P: 8 | BAL Price (LHP) P: 9 | BAL Cobb (RHP) P: 6 | BAL Hellickson (RHP) P: 4 |
| @TB Garza (RHP) P: 6 | @TB Tepesch (RHP) P: 5 | @TB Holland (LHP) P: 4 | @TB Darvish (RHP) P: 8 | @KC Perez (LHP) P: 5 | @KC Garza (RHP) P: 6 | @KC Tepesch (RHP) P: 5 |
| NYY Dickey (RHP) P: 5 | NYY Happ (LHP) P: 4 | NYY Redmond (RHP) P: 2 | @BOS Rogers (RHP) P: 4 | @BOS Buehrle (LHP) P: 3 | @BOS Dickey (RHP) P: 3 | |
| LAD Cahill (RHP) P: 5 | LAD Corbin (LHP) P: 6 | LAD McCarthy (RHP) P: 8 | LAD Miley (LHP) P: 5 | @COL Delgado (RHP) P: 3 | @COL Cahill (RHP) P: 4 | @COL Corbin (LHP) P: 5 |
| @WSH Minor (LHP) P: 7 | @WSH Wood (LHP) P: 2 | @WSH Garcia (RHP) P: 3 | @CHC Hale (RHP) P: 4 | @CHC Medlen (RHP) P: 7 | @CHC Teheran (RHP) P: 7 | |
| @MIL Jackson (RHP) P: 4 | @MIL Samardzija (RHP) P: 4 | @MIL Rusin (LHP) P: 6 | @MIL Arrieta (RHP) P: 6 | ATL Baker (RHP) P: 5 | ATL Wood (LHP) P: 8 | ATL Jackson (RHP) P: 4 |
| @HOU Leake (RHP) P: 6 | @HOU TBD P: 1 | @HOU Latos (RHP) P: 8 | @PIT Bailey (RHP) P: 9 | @PIT Arroyo (RHP) P: 5 | @PIT Leake (RHP) P: 6 | |
| STL DeLaRosa (LHP) P: 4 | STL Nicasio (RHP) P: 4 | STL Chatwood (RHP) P: 5 | STL Oswalt (RHP) P: 4 | ARI Chacin (RHP) P: 9 | ARI DeLaRosa (LHP) P: 4 | ARI Nicasio (RHP) P: 4 |
| @ARI Ryu (LHP) P: 6 | @ARI Greinke (RHP) P: 9 | @ARI Kershaw (LHP) P: 10 | @ARI Nolasco (RHP) P: 10 | @SD Volquez (RHP) P: 5 | @SD Ryu (LHP) P: 8 | @SD Greinke (RHP) P: 10 |
| @PHI TBD P: 1 | @PHI Flynn (LHP) P: 1 | @PHI Hand (LHP) P: 3 | @WSH Alvarez (RHP) P: 4 | @WSH Turner (RHP) P: 3 | @WSH Koehler (RHP) P: 2 | @WSH TBD P: 1 |
| CHC Peralta (RHP) P: 6 | CHC Estrada (RHP) P: 9 | CHC Thornburg (RHP) P: 7 | CHC Lohse (RHP) P: 4 | STL Hellweg (RHP) P: 3 | STL Gallardo (RHP) P: 5 | STL Peralta (RHP) P: 6 |
| SF Wheeler (RHP) P: 8 | SF Harang (RHP) P: 3 | SF Niese (LHP) P: 6 | @PHI Matsuzaka (RHP) P: 1 | @PHI Torres (RHP) P: 5 | @PHI Gee (RHP) P: 5 | |
| MIA Lee (LHP) P: 10 | MIA Halladay (RHP) P: 4 | MIA Kendrick (RHP) P: 8 | NYM Hamels (LHP) P: 9 | NYM Cloyd (RHP) P: 5 | NYM Lee (LHP) P: 10 | |
| SD Burnett (RHP) P: 9 | SD Locke (LHP) P: 6 | SD Morton (RHP) P: 5 | SD Cole (RHP) P: 10 | CIN Liriano (LHP) P: 8 | CIN Burnett (RHP) P: 8 | CIN Locke (LHP) P: 5 |
| @COL Lynn (RHP) P: 3 | @COL Kelly (RHP) P: 3 | @COL Wainwrght (RHP) P: 7 | @COL Wacha (RHP) P: 6 | @MIL Miller (RHP) P: 7 | @MIL Lynn (RHP) P: 4 | @MIL Kelly (RHP) P: 6 |
| @PIT Cashner (RHP) P: 8 | @PIT Ross (RHP) P: 5 | @PIT Kennedy (RHP) P: 4 | @PIT Erlin (LHP) P: 6 | LAD Smith (RHP) P: 1 | LAD Cashner (RHP) P: 9 | LAD Ross (RHP) P: 6 |
| @NYM Petit (RHP) P: 9 | @NYM Cain (RHP) P: 9 | @NYM Bumgarner (LHP) P: 10 | @NYY Lincecum (RHP) P: 6 | @NYY Vogelsong (RHP) P: 3 | @NYY Petit (RHP) P: 7 | |
| ATL Haren (RHP) P: 4 | ATL Roark (RHP) P: 6 | ATL Strasburg (RHP) P: 10 | MIA Gonzalez (LHP) P: 10 | MIA Zimmrmnn (RHP) P: 10 | MIA Haren (RHP) P: 6 | MIA Roark (RHP) P: 7 |
| P: The starting pitcher's matchup rating, which accounts for past history (three years' worth as well as past 21 days), opponent and ballpark. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. |
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[h=3]Pitching scuttlebutt[/h]• The Chicago White Sox, Houston Astros, Minnesota Twins, Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets are all currently utilizing six-man rotations, with only the Mets giving any indication of reverting to five in the near future.
• Bud Norris (elbow) was scratched from his Sept. 13 start for the Baltimore Orioles, but claims he'll miss only the one turn. Jason Hammel filled in for him, but it is unclear when or for whom Norris will return this week; this is the reason for the "TBD" in that open spot Thursday.
• Felix Doubront, who was skipped in the Boston Red Sox's Week 23 rotation, is expected to make a start at some point this week. It is unclear when or for whom he'll join the rotation, or whether the team will go to a six-man rotation. One consideration: Jake Peavysuffered a wrist injury during his Sept. 12 start, and is day-to-day.
• With Jarred Cosart having reached his innings cap, the Astros will replace him in the rotation with Erik Bedard beginning Monday.
• Though the Kansas City Royals haven't officially announced his next starting assignment,Danny Duffy had his Sept. 13 start skipped due to a Sept. 12 off day, and the most logical order would have him moved back to Tuesday.
• It remains entirely unclear when the Seattle Mariners will restore Felix Hernandez(oblique) to their rotation, if they do so at all. Before Hernandez's injury, they were utilizing a six-man rotation, and they might resume it if he pitches this week.
• Nick Tepesch hasn't been officially confirmed for the assignment, but Texas Rangersmanager Ron Washington said Sept. 10 that the rookie is the most likely candidate to assume Tuesday's open rotation spot.
• The Atlanta Braves, thanks to their substantial lead in the NL East division, have begun resting regulars, their rotation members especially. Freddy Garcia and David Hale made back-to-back spot starts Sept. 12-13, and they could factor again into the team's rotation this week, what with Paul Maholm (elbow) ailing and the team trying to keep Julio Teheran's innings in check.
• Tony Cingrani (back) left his Sept. 10 start early, forcing the Cincinnati Reds to push his rotation spot back to Tuesday. It's unclear whether Cingrani, or Johnny Cueto (lat) would be ready to pitch then.
• The Colorado Rockies, looking to keep Chad Bettis' innings in check, will replace him in the rotation with Roy Oswalt beginning Sept. 14.
• With Jose Fernandez's season complete and Nate Eovaldi battling a back injury, the Miami Marlins' rotation is uncertain entering the week. Eovaldi could be a candidate to start Monday, with Sam Dyson the likely fall-back, but it's then unclear whether recent fill-insBrian Flynn and/or Brad Hand would remain in the rotation, or whether the team will use a six-man rotation.
• New York Mets manager Terry Collins said Sept. 12 that the team will likely utilize a five-man rotation through season's end, but it's unclear who will exit their rotation this week.Zack Wheeler might be a candidate as he approaches his innings cap, but Carlos Torres is most likely to be skipped for Week 24, in which case Wheeler would pick up a second start.
[h=3]Tristan's Week 23 pitcher rankings: Top 75[/h]1. Cliff Lee (PHI) -- Mon-MIA (TBD), Sun-NYM (Gee)
2. Zack Greinke (LAD) -- Tue-@ARI (Corbin), Sun-@SD (Ross)
3. Anibal Sanchez (DET) -- Tue-SEA (Maurer), Sun-CWS (Sale)
4. Homer Bailey (CIN) -- Fri-@PIT (Liriano)
5. Clayton Kershaw (LAD) -- Wed-@ARI (McCarthy)
6. Cole Hamels (PHI) -- Fri-NYM (Matsuzaka)
7. Stephen Strasburg (WSH) -- Wed-ATL (Garcia)
8. Ricky Nolasco (LAD) -- Thu-@ARI (Miley)
9. Gio Gonzalez (WSH) -- Thu-MIA (Alvarez)
10. Max Scherzer (DET) -- Fri-CWS (Santiago)
11. Madison Bumgarner (SF) -- Thu-@NYM (Niese)
12. Yu Darvish (TEX) -- Thu-@TB (Moore)
13. James Shields (KC) -- Mon-CLE (Kazmir), Sun-TEX (Tepesch)
14. Jarrod Parker (OAK) -- Fri-MIN (Albers)
15. David Price (TB) -- Fri-BAL (Tillman)
16. Mat Latos (CIN) -- Wed-@HOU (Peacock)
17. Francisco Liriano (PIT) -- Fri-CIN (Bailey)
18. Jordan Zimmermann (WSH) -- Fri-MIA (Turner)
19. Andrew Cashner (SD) -- Mon-@PIT (Burnett), Sat-LAD (Ryu)
20. Jake Peavy (BOS) -- Wed-BAL (Chen)
21. Justin Verlander (DET) -- Wed-SEA (Iwakuma)
22. Adam Wainwright (STL) -- Wed-@COL (Chatwood)
23. Chris Sale (CWS) -- Sun-@DET (Sanchez)
24. Sonny Gray (OAK) -- Mon-LAA (Wilson), Sat-MIN (Hernandez)
25. Alex Cobb (TB) -- Mon-TEX (Garza), Sat-BAL (Gonzalez)
26. A.J. Burnett (PIT) -- Mon-SD (Cashner), Sat-CIN (Arroyo)
27. Jhoulys Chacin (COL) -- Fri-ARI (Delgado)
28. Hyun-Jin Ryu (LAD) -- Mon-@ARI (Cahill), Sat-@SD (Cashner)
29. Patrick Corbin (ARI) -- Tue-LAD (Greinke), Sun-@COL (Nicasio)
30. Michael Wacha (STL) -- Thu-@COL (Oswalt)
31. Ubaldo Jimenez (CLE) -- Thu-HOU (Oberholtzer)
32. A.J. Griffin (OAK) -- Tue-LAA (Richards), Sun-MIN (Hendriks)
33. C.J. Wilson (LAA) -- Mon-@OAK (Gray), Sun-SEA (Maurer)
34. R.A. Dickey (TOR) -- Tue-NYY (Pettitte), Sun-@BOS (Dempster)
35. Jered Weaver (LAA) -- Fri-SEA (Ramirez)
36. Jon Lester (BOS) -- Fri-TOR (Rogers)
37. Chris Tillman (BAL) -- Fri-@TB (Price)
38. Kris Medlen (ATL) -- Sat-@CHC (Wood)
39. Gerrit Cole (PIT) -- Thu-SD (Erlin)
40. Zack Wheeler (NYM) -- Tue-SF (Petit)
41. Julio Teheran (ATL) -- Sun-@CHC (Jackson)
42. Matt Cain (SF) -- Wed-@NYM (Harang)
43. Andy Pettitte (NYY) -- Tue-@TOR (Dickey), Sun-SF (Petit)
44. Jonathon Niese (NYM) -- Thu-SF (Bumgarner)
45. Mike Minor (ATL) -- Mon-@WSH (Haren)
46. Clay Buchholz (BOS) -- Sat-TOR (Buehrle)
47. Matt Moore (TB) -- Thu-TEX (Darvish)
48. Matt Garza (TEX) -- Mon-@TB (Cobb), Sat-@KC (Guthrie)
49. Marco Estrada (MIL) -- Tue-CHC (Samardzija)
50. Ivan Nova (NYY) -- Sat-SF (Vogelsong)
51. Shelby Miller (STL) -- Fri-@MIL (Hellweg)
52. Bartolo Colon (OAK) -- Thu-MIN (Correia)
53. Scott Feldman (BAL) -- Tue-@BOS (Dempster), Sun-@TB (Hellickson)
54. Scott Kazmir (CLE) -- Mon-@KC (Shields), Sat-HOU (Clemens)
55. CC Sabathia (NYY) -- Fri-SF (Lincecum)
56. Travis Wood (CHC) -- Sat-ATL (Medlen)
57. Tanner Roark (WSH) -- Tue-ATL (Wood), Sun-MIA (TBD)
58. Corey Kluber (CLE) -- Tue-@KC (Duffy), Sun-HOU (Bedard)
59. Yovani Gallardo (MIL) -- Sat-STL (Lynn)
60. Danny Salazar (CLE) -- Wed-@KC (Chen)
61. John Lackey (BOS) -- Thu-BAL (TBD)
62. Ervin Santana (KC) -- Fri-TEX (Perez)
63. Rick Porcello (DET) -- Mon-SEA (Saunders), Sat-CWS (Rienzo)
64. Hisashi Iwakuma (SEA) -- Wed-@DET (Verlander)
65. Chris Archer (TB) -- Wed-TEX (Holland)
66. Dillon Gee (NYM) -- Sun-@PHI (Lee)
67. Yusmeiro Petit (SF) -- Tue-@NYM (Wheeler), Sun-@NYY (Pettitte)
68. Doug Fister (DET) -- Thu-SEA (Paxton)
69. Jeff Samardzija (CHC) -- Tue-@MIL (Estrada)
70. Jose Quintana (CWS) -- Tue-MIN (Pelfrey)
71. Tyson Ross (SD) -- Tue-@PIT (Locke), Sun-LAD (Greinke)
72. Dan Haren (WSH) -- Mon-ATL (Minor), Sat-MIA (Koehler)
73. Mike Leake (CIN) -- Mon-@HOU (Bedard), Sun-@PIT (Locke)
74. Bronson Arroyo (CIN) -- Sat-@PIT (Burnett)
75. Joe Kelly (STL) -- Tue-@COL (Nicasio), Sun-@MIL (Peralta)
Two-start options for AL-/NL-only leagues:
Trevor Cahill (ARI) -- Mon-LAD (Ryu), Sat-@COL (De La Rosa)
Jorge De La Rosa (COL) -- Mon-STL (Lynn), Sat-ARI (Cahill)
Edwin Jackson (CHC) -- Mon-@MIL (Peralta), Sun-ATL (Teheran)
Jeff Locke (PIT) -- Tue-SD (Ross), Sun-CIN (Leake)
Lance Lynn (STL) -- Mon-@COL (De La Rosa), Sat-@MIL (Gallardo)
Juan Nicasio (COL) -- Tue-STL (Kelly), Sun-ARI (Corbin)
Wily Peralta (MIL) -- Mon-CHC (Jackson), Sun-STL (Kelly)
No-thank-yous, among two-start pitchers:
Erik Bedard (HOU) -- Mon-CIN (Leake), Sun-@CLE (Kluber)
Ryan Dempster (BOS) -- Tue-BAL (Feldman), Sun-TOR (Dickey)
Jeremy Hellickson (TB) -- Tue-TEX (Tepesch), Sun-BAL (Feldman)
Liam Hendriks (MIN) -- Mon-@CWS (Johnson), Sun-@OAK (Griffin)
Brandon Maurer (SEA) -- Tue-@DET (Sanchez), Sun-@LAA (Wilson)
Joe Saunders (SEA) -- Mon-@DET (Porcello), Sat-@LAA (Williams)
Nick Tepesch (TEX) -- Tue-@TB (Hellickson), Sun-@KC (Shields)
[h=3]Pitching advantages[/h]• Streaming opportunities and the Cleveland Indians -- a point also raised in this week's "60 Feet 6 Inches" -- are a significant theme of Week 24. This is a team that, despite no individual starter being owned in more than 50.3 percent of ESPN leagues, has managed the majors' best strikeout rate (24.5 percent of batters faced) and ninth-best starters' ERA (3.78) since the beginning of August.
Kansas City Royals and Houston Astros matchups are polarizing ones at least on the strikeout side; the Astros have been the majors' most strikeout-prone offense this season, the Royals the least, and those facts don't change whether you run the statistical splits as full-season or since the All-Star break. The Royals, though, have mere .271/.324/.392 triple-slash rates for the majors' No. 17 wOBA (weighted on-base average) since the All-Star break, so they're still a favorable matchup.
Conveniently, Ubaldo Jimenez (23.6 percent K rate), Scott Kazmir (22.6 percent) and Corey Kluber (22.7) are all lined up to make starts during the Astros series, with both Kazmir and Kluber set for two starts (their first against the Royals). That makes all three well worth adding even in shallow mixed formats, especially as Jimenez is 6-of-9 in quality starts with a 1.94 ERA and 27.0 percent K rate since the All-Star break, Kazmir has a 3.67 ERA and 24.0 percent K rate during that same span and Kluber has a 2.68 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in six starts during that time. You'll find Kazmir and Kluber among my "Streamer's Delight" picks below; it's an expanded list this week.
• Conversely, temper your expectations with St. Louis Cardinals pitchers, as the team is taking a more conservative approach with its youngsters' innings plus plays four games at Colorado's Coors Field, not to mention three more in another hitter-friendly venue, Milwaukee's Miller Park. Shorter outings for starters Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha and Shelby Miller, as well as lighter relief usage for relievers Trevor Rosenthal, Kevin Siegrist and Carlos Martinez, might result in diminished win/save potential for the team as a whole going up against more hitter-friendly matchups.
This isn't to say that Cardinals pitchers should all sit; there's a difference between that and "tempering expectations," as my rankings above show. Adam Wainwright, after all, is 2-for-2 in quality starts with a 1.08 ERA in his career at Coors Field. Wacha's fantasy appeal Thursday at Coors might hinge upon his Sept. 14 performance; he had back-to-back quality starts and had an active streak of 19 2/3 scoreless innings entering that assignment. And Miller has a 2.38 ERA but also a 1.50 WHIP in two starts at Miller Park this season.
• Yusmeiro Petit, 3-for-5 in quality starts this season and two turns removed from a near-perfect game, has a polarizing set of matchups in New York. His stuff has generated far more swings and misses than anyone could've expected -- he has a 29.6 percent K rate and 26 percent miss rate on swings thus far -- and he'll first face a New York Mets team that has whiffed the third-most often since the All-Star break (22.2 percent rate). But as an extreme fly-baller -- he has a 41.5 percent rate -- he's in severe danger of a correction to his 2.9 home run/fly ball percentage during his weekend start at New York's Yankee Stadium against a surging New York Yankees offense. Petit is a brilliant mix-and-match candidate in NL-only leagues, but his modest ranking this week accounts for the risk of start No. 2.
• This could be the week that the Oakland Athletics separate themselves in the AL West race, as their underrated pitching staff gets seven games at home at pitching-friendly O.co Coliseum. As a team, Athletics pitchers are 16-of-29 in quality starts, 11-of-14 in saves and have a 3.29 ERA at home since the All-Star break, each of those placing them among the game's top 10 during that span.
About the only risky play among Athletics this week is Dan Straily, who is 2-of-5 in quality starts with a 6.91 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in his career against the Los Angeles Angels. The standout play is two-start pitcher Sonny Gray, who is 5-of-7 in quality starts with a 2.63 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 26.6 percent K rate thus far in the majors, and who defeated theMinnesota Twins, his weekend opponent, behind five innings of two-run, seven-strikeout baseball on Sept. 11.
• Don't underestimate Andrew Cashner's improved strikeout rate since the All-Star break; his 19.4 percent number is a lot closer to his 19.7 percent major league or 22.1 percent minor league rates than the 16.2 percent rate he had in the first half. On paper his matchups might seem treacherous, but look closer: Pittsburgh's PNC Park is one of the more pitching-friendly venues in baseball, not to mention the Pittsburgh Pirates rank 21st with a .307 team wOBA thus far in September. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Dodgers could soon be resting regulars for the postseason, not to mention Cashner is 2-of-2 in quality starts with a 1.83 ERA against them in 2013.
• Here are this week's Streamer's Delight picks -- players need to be available in at least 75 percent of ESPN leagues as of our publishing time (Fridays):
1 and 2. Scott Kazmir (HOU, Saturday) and Corey Kluber (HOU, Sunday).
3. Andrew Cashner (@PIT, Monday)
4. Edinson Volquez (@SD, Friday): Revenge! Volquez returns to San Diego's Petco Park, which he called home from 2012 until Aug. 27, and he's 12-of-20 in quality starts with a 2.85 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in his career there.
5. Rick Porcello (CWS, Saturday): His Seattle Mariners matchup on Monday is solid, but would it surprise you to learn that he has seven wins, eight quality starts, a 2.00 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in nine starts against the Chicago White Sox in 2012-13?
6. Tanner Roark (MIA, Sunday): He's riding back-to-back quality starts, including six scoreless innings against these Miami Marlins on Sept. 7.
7. Marco Estrada (CHC, Tuesday): He's 4-of-5 in quality starts with a 3.72 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 27.2 percent K rate in his career against the Chicago Cubs.
8. Kyle Kendrick (MIA, Wednesday): He has already defeated these Miami Marlins twice at home this year, and he's 10-0 with seven quality starts, a 2.18 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in his past 12 games (11 starts) against them.
[h=3]Hitting ratings[/h]The chart below lists each of the 30 teams' total number of scheduled games, home games and games versus right- and left-handed pitchers, and provides a matchup rating for the week's games in terms of overall offense, offense for left- and right-handed hitters and base stealing. Matchup ratings for each individual game are listed under the corresponding date.
| <center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Team</center> | <center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Games</center> | <center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Overall Rating</center> | <center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Mon 9/16</center> | <center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Tue 9/17</center> | <center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Wed 9/18</center> | <center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Thu 9/19</center> | <center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Fri 9/20</center> | <center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Sat 9/21</center> | <center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Sun 9/22</center> |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 6 total 0 home 1 vs. L 5 vs. R | H: 3 L: 4 R: 4 S: 8 | @BOS H: 8 L: 5 R: 10 S: 8 | @BOS H: 3 L: 4 R: 3 S: 7 | @BOS H: 5 L: 5 R: 5 S: 9 | @TB H: 2 L: 1 R: 4 S: 7 | @TB H: 4 L: 6 R: 1 S: 8 | @TB H: 6 L: 6 R: 5 S: 7 | |
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| 6 total 6 home 2 vs. L 3 vs. R | H: 6 L: 6 R: 6 S: 4 | BAL H: 3 L: 5 R: 3 S: 4 | BAL H: 9 L: 6 R: 9 S: 2 | BAL H: 7 L: 7 R: 7 S: 1 | TOR H: 4 L: 6 R: 4 S: 5 | TOR H: 7 L: 7 R: 6 S: 5 | TOR H: 6 L: 7 R: 6 S: 6 | |
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| 6 total 3 home 1 vs. L 5 vs. R | H: 6 L: 10 R: 3 S: 6 | MIN H: 10 L: 10 R: 7 S: 4 | MIN H: 7 L: 7 R: 7 S: 4 | MIN H: 9 L: 9 R: 8 S: 4 | @DET H: 3 L: 5 R: 1 S: 7 | @DET H: 6 L: 8 R: 3 S: 7 | @DET H: 2 L: 4 R: 1 S: 8 | |
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| 7 total 4 home 5 vs. L 2 vs. R | H: 7 L: 8 R: 7 S: 5 | @KC H: 3 L: 3 R: 5 S: 4 | @KC H: 4 L: 5 R: 3 S: 4 | @KC H: 5 L: 6 R: 4 S: 4 | HOU H: 4 L: 7 R: 2 S: 3 | HOU H: 7 L: 5 R: 7 S: 5 | HOU H: 10 L: 7 R: 10 S: 5 | HOU H: 7 L: 6 R: 7 S: 5 |
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| 7 total 7 home 4 vs. L 3 vs. R | H: 9 L: 5 R: 10 S: 4 | SEA H: 10 L: 3 R: 10 S: 3 | SEA H: 10 L: 10 R: 10 S: 3 | SEA H: 4 L: 3 R: 6 S: 3 | SEA H: 2 L: 5 R: 2 S: 3 | CWS H: 7 L: 5 R: 8 S: 5 | CWS H: 10 L: 7 R: 10 S: 5 | CWS H: 3 L: 1 R: 5 S: 5 |
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| 7 total 3 home 1 vs. L 5 vs. R | H: 6 L: 4 R: 8 S: 5 | CIN H: 5 L: 4 R: 7 S: 4 | CIN H: 6 L: 6 R: 6 S: 4 | CIN H: 3 L: 4 R: 3 S: 4 | @CLE H: 4 L: 4 R: 4 S: 5 | @CLE H: 7 L: 4 R: 9 S: 5 | @CLE H: 6 L: 3 R: 7 S: 4 | @CLE H: 4 L: 5 R: 4 S: 5 |
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| 6 total 6 home 2 vs. L 4 vs. R | H: 5 L: 5 R: 3 S: 5 | CLE H: 7 L: 4 R: 7 S: 4 | CLE H: 5 L: 6 R: 4 S: 5 | CLE H: 3 L: 6 R: 1 S: 5 | TEX H: 6 L: 7 R: 6 S: 5 | TEX H: 5 L: 7 R: 3 S: 6 | TEX H: 6 L: 7 R: 4 S: 7 | |
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| 6 total 3 home 1 vs. L 5 vs. R | H: 5 L: 4 R: 5 S: 3 | @OAK H: 1 L: 3 R: 1 S: 3 | @OAK H: 4 L: 5 R: 4 S: 3 | @OAK H: 4 L: 5 R: 4 S: 4 | SEA H: 5 L: 5 R: 4 S: 4 | SEA H: 10 L: 3 R: 10 S: 3 | SEA H: 10 L: 10 R: 10 S: 3 | |
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| 7 total 0 home 2 vs. L 5 vs. R | H: 6 L: 9 R: 3 S: 5 | @CWS H: 10 L: 10 R: 1 S: 5 | @CWS H: 6 L: 5 R: 6 S: 4 | @CWS H: 10 L: 10 R: 10 S: 4 | @OAK H: 3 L: 4 R: 3 S: 4 | @OAK H: 3 L: 4 R: 2 S: 5 | @OAK H: 1 L: 3 R: 1 S: 3 | @OAK H: 4 L: 5 R: 4 S: 3 |
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| 6 total 3 home 1 vs. L 5 vs. R | H: 6 L: 5 R: 7 S: 7 | @TOR H: 6 L: 6 R: 5 S: 6 | @TOR H: 7 L: 10 R: 6 S: 6 | @TOR H: 9 L: 8 R: 9 S: 8 | SF H: 6 L: 4 R: 7 S: 7 | SF H: 8 L: 6 R: 9 S: 6 | SF H: 1 L: 1 R: 2 S: 6 | |
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| 7 total 7 home 4 vs. L 3 vs. R | H: 8 L: 9 R: 6 S: 7 | LAA H: 5 L: 1 R: 7 S: 9 | LAA H: 4 L: 6 R: 1 S: 9 | LAA H: 6 L: 8 R: 5 S: 8 | MIN H: 6 L: 6 R: 6 S: 3 | MIN H: 3 L: 6 R: 2 S: 4 | MIN H: 8 L: 6 R: 9 S: 2 | MIN H: 9 L: 9 R: 6 S: 4 |
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| 7 total 0 home 1 vs. L 6 vs. R | H: 5 L: 4 R: 6 S: 10 | @DET H: 6 L: 8 R: 3 S: 7 | @DET H: 2 L: 4 R: 1 S: 8 | @DET H: 4 L: 3 R: 6 S: 8 | @DET H: 6 L: 4 R: 7 S: 6 | @LAA H: 3 L: 2 R: 5 S: 9 | @LAA H: 6 L: 6 R: 5 S: 9 | @LAA H: 5 L: 1 R: 8 S: 9 |
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| 7 total 7 home 1 vs. L 6 vs. R | H: 4 L: 5 R: 3 S: 5 | TEX H: 5 L: 6 R: 3 S: 6 | TEX H: 5 L: 6 R: 3 S: 7 | TEX H: 7 L: 4 R: 7 S: 6 | TEX H: 2 L: 5 R: 1 S: 7 | BAL H: 3 L: 4 R: 4 S: 2 | BAL H: 5 L: 4 R: 7 S: 1 | BAL H: 2 L: 4 R: 1 S: 4 |
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| 7 total 0 home 1 vs. L 6 vs. R | H: 4 L: 7 R: 1 S: 7 | @TB H: 4 L: 6 R: 1 S: 8 | @TB H: 6 L: 6 R: 5 S: 7 | @TB H: 4 L: 7 R: 1 S: 8 | @TB H: 2 L: 2 R: 3 S: 7 | @KC H: 6 L: 6 R: 4 S: 5 | @KC H: 7 L: 8 R: 2 S: 3 | @KC H: 3 L: 3 R: 5 S: 4 |
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| 6 total 3 home 2 vs. L 4 vs. R | H: 6 L: 4 R: 7 S: 6 | NYY H: 6 L: 2 R: 8 S: 4 | NYY H: 8 L: 8 R: 7 S: 4 | NYY H: 7 L: 7 R: 6 S: 4 | @BOS H: 5 L: 4 R: 5 S: 7 | @BOS H: 2 L: 4 R: 2 S: 7 | @BOS H: 8 L: 5 R: 10 S: 8 | |
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| 7 total 4 home 3 vs. L 4 vs. R | H: 5 L: 5 R: 5 S: 3 | LAD H: 5 L: 6 R: 6 S: 1 | LAD H: 3 L: 6 R: 1 S: 1 | LAD H: 2 L: 6 R: 2 S: 1 | LAD H: 2 L: 4 R: 1 S: 2 | @COL H: 3 L: 5 R: 3 S: 3 | @COL H: 8 L: 1 R: 10 S: 4 | @COL H: 8 L: 5 R: 10 S: 4 |
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| 6 total 0 home 1 vs. L 5 vs. R | H: 2 L: 4 R: 1 S: 6 | @WSH H: 7 L: 6 R: 7 S: 5 | @WSH H: 1 L: 3 R: 1 S: 5 | @WSH H: 1 L: 2 R: 1 S: 5 | @CHC H: 3 L: 6 R: 1 S: 5 | @CHC H: 3 L: 4 R: 4 S: 6 | @CHC H: 8 L: 7 R: 7 S: 7 | |
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| 7 total 3 home 0 vs. L 7 vs. R | H: 4 L: 6 R: 4 S: 8 | @MIL H: 5 L: 5 R: 5 S: 6 | @MIL H: 2 L: 4 R: 2 S: 7 | @MIL H: 1 L: 1 R: 4 S: 6 | @MIL H: 7 L: 7 R: 7 S: 5 | ATL H: 6 L: 6 R: 6 S: 7 | ATL H: 5 L: 7 R: 3 S: 6 | ATL H: 4 L: 8 R: 2 S: 7 |
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| 6 total 0 home 3 vs. L 3 vs. R | H: 4 L: 4 R: 4 S: 5 | @HOU H: 7 L: 6 R: 7 S: 5 | @HOU H: 6 L: 4 R: 7 S: 5 | @HOU H: 6 L: 6 R: 4 S: 6 | @PIT H: 2 L: 1 R: 5 S: 4 | @PIT H: 3 L: 7 R: 1 S: 6 | @PIT H: 4 L: 5 R: 4 S: 4 | |
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| 7 total 7 home 1 vs. L 6 vs. R | H: 8 L: 9 R: 8 S: 1 | STL H: 9 L: 10 R: 6 S: 1 | STL H: 7 L: 7 R: 7 S: 1 | STL H: 5 L: 6 R: 5 S: 1 | STL H: 1 L: 1 R: 4 S: 1 | ARI H: 8 L: 7 R: 9 S: 1 | ARI H: 7 L: 8 R: 6 S: 2 | ARI H: 7 L: 4 R: 8 S: 1 |
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| 7 total 0 home 2 vs. L 5 vs. R | H: 6 L: 6 R: 6 S: 4 | @ARI H: 7 L: 7 R: 5 S: 2 | @ARI H: 6 L: 3 R: 7 S: 1 | @ARI H: 4 L: 3 R: 6 S: 2 | @ARI H: 7 L: 5 R: 7 S: 1 | @SD H: 10 L: 10 R: 6 S: 6 | @SD H: 2 L: 4 R: 1 S: 6 | @SD H: 3 L: 5 R: 1 S: 6 |
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| 7 total 0 home 2 vs. L 5 vs. R | H: 4 L: 5 R: 3 S: 6 | @PHI H: 2 L: 1 R: 4 S: 5 | @PHI H: 9 L: 10 R: 4 S: 6 | @PHI H: 5 L: 4 R: 6 S: 5 | @WSH H: 2 L: 6 R: 2 S: 5 | @WSH H: 3 L: 5 R: 3 S: 4 | @WSH H: 7 L: 6 R: 7 S: 5 | @WSH H: 1 L: 3 R: 1 S: 5 |
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| 7 total 7 home 1 vs. L 6 vs. R | H: 8 L: 9 R: 7 S: 5 | CHC H: 8 L: 7 R: 7 S: 7 | CHC H: 7 L: 7 R: 7 S: 7 | CHC H: 5 L: 1 R: 7 S: 6 | CHC H: 5 L: 5 R: 5 S: 7 | STL H: 5 L: 6 R: 4 S: 1 | STL H: 7 L: 10 R: 4 S: 1 | STL H: 5 L: 5 R: 6 S: 1 |
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| 6 total 3 home 3 vs. L 3 vs. R | H: 1 L: 1 R: 3 S: 6 | SF H: 1 L: 1 R: 2 S: 6 | SF H: 3 L: 3 R: 4 S: 7 | SF H: 1 L: 1 R: 3 S: 6 | @PHI H: 3 L: 3 R: 4 S: 6 | @PHI H: 8 L: 5 R: 10 S: 6 | @PHI H: 2 L: 1 R: 4 S: 5 | |
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| 6 total 6 home 2 vs. L 3 vs. R | H: 8 L: 8 R: 8 S: 6 | MIA H: 6 L: 6 R: 6 S: 5 | MIA H: 10 L: 10 R: 10 S: 4 | MIA H: 3 L: 5 R: 3 S: 4 | NYM H: 10 L: 8 R: 10 S: 8 | NYM H: 7 L: 4 R: 8 S: 6 | NYM H: 6 L: 8 R: 5 S: 6 | |
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| 7 total 7 home 1 vs. L 6 vs. R | H: 5 L: 7 R: 3 S: 6 | SD H: 3 L: 5 R: 1 S: 6 | SD H: 4 L: 6 R: 2 S: 6 | SD H: 7 L: 7 R: 6 S: 5 | SD H: 5 L: 4 R: 6 S: 6 | CIN H: 2 L: 4 R: 1 S: 4 | CIN H: 6 L: 8 R: 3 S: 4 | CIN H: 5 L: 3 R: 7 S: 4 |
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| 7 total 0 home 1 vs. L 6 vs. R | H: 10 L: 7 R: 9 S: 6 | @COL H: 8 L: 1 R: 10 S: 4 | @COL H: 8 L: 5 R: 10 S: 4 | @COL H: 7 L: 7 R: 6 S: 4 | @COL H: 8 L: 7 R: 8 S: 4 | @MIL H: 9 L: 10 R: 1 S: 6 | @MIL H: 4 L: 4 R: 5 S: 6 | @MIL H: 5 L: 5 R: 5 S: 6 |
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| 7 total 3 home 2 vs. L 5 vs. R | H: 3 L: 7 R: 1 S: 4 | @PIT H: 3 L: 7 R: 1 S: 6 | @PIT H: 4 L: 5 R: 4 S: 4 | @PIT H: 5 L: 8 R: 2 S: 5 | @PIT H: 2 L: 3 R: 3 S: 5 | LAD H: 8 L: 8 R: 6 S: 3 | LAD H: 4 L: 4 R: 4 S: 1 | LAD H: 1 L: 4 R: 1 S: 1 |
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| 6 total 0 home 3 vs. L 3 vs. R | H: 4 L: 3 R: 6 S: 5 | @NYM H: 3 L: 4 R: 4 S: 7 | @NYM H: 8 L: 7 R: 7 S: 6 | @NYM H: 5 L: 3 R: 6 S: 6 | @NYY H: 5 L: 3 R: 6 S: 4 | @NYY H: 4 L: 5 R: 4 S: 4 | @NYY H: 6 L: 1 R: 7 S: 4 | |
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| 7 total 7 home 2 vs. L 4 vs. R | H: 8 L: 7 R: 8 S: 7 | ATL H: 3 L: 3 R: 4 S: 6 | ATL H: 8 L: 5 R: 8 S: 6 | ATL H: 5 L: 8 R: 2 S: 8 | MIA H: 6 L: 9 R: 2 S: 4 | MIA H: 6 L: 3 R: 9 S: 5 | MIA H: 8 L: 6 R: 10 S: 4 | MIA H: 6 L: 6 R: 6 S: 5 |
| Some of the data used to generate this chart is derived from Baseball Musings' Day-by-day database. H: Hitters' matchup rating, which accounts for the opposing starting pitcher's past history (three years' worth as well as past 21 days) as well as ballpark factors. L: Hitters' matchup rating accounting only for left-handed hitters. R: Hitters' matchup rating accounting for only right-handed hitters. S: Base stealing matchup rating, which accounts for the opponent's catchers' ability to gun down opposing base stealers. Ratings range from 1-10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. |
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[h=3]Hitting advantages[/h]• Here are this week's "volume plays" -- defined as the teams that play the most home games, or games against left- or right-handed starters:
Home games: Detroit Tigers 7, Oakland Athletics 7, Tampa Bay Rays 7, Colorado Rockies 7,Milwaukee Brewers 7, Pittsburgh Pirates 7, Washington Nationals 7
Versus LH: Cleveland Indians 5, Detroit Tigers 4, Oakland Athletics 4, Arizona Diamondbacks3, Cincinnati Reds 3, New York Mets 3, San Francisco Giants 3
Versus RH: Chicago Cubs 7, Seattle Mariners 6, Tampa Bay Rays 6, Texas Rangers 6, Colorado Rockies 6, Milwaukee Brewers 6, Pittsburgh Pirates 6, St. Louis Cardinals 6
• Loyal Forecaster followers might recall that the Washington Nationals struggled for the majority of the year against left-handed pitchers, but consider this: In the past 30 days (Aug. 14-Sept. 12), they have .277/.355/.406 triple-slash rates with the majors' 14th-ranked wOBA (.327) against them. This is no longer a pushover squad against lefties, so there's no need to worry about the two lefty matchups this week.
It's the home games that tilt the scales in their favor, giving them a fighting chance at a playoff push. In their past 20 games at Nationals Park, the Nationals have .296/.355/.443 triple-slash rates and a .341 wOBA, ranking among the five best offensive teams at home during that span. Three Nationals in particular stand out: Adam LaRoche (owned in only 58.8 percent of ESPN leagues), a .344 hitter with two home runs in 11 games in September;Denard Span (48.7 percent), a .308/.355/.411 hitter at Nationals Park this season; andWilson Ramos (25.7), who has nine home runs and 30 RBIs in 42 games since the All-Star break.
• While the St. Louis Cardinals' pitching matchups will challenge them, their hitting matchups stack firmly in their favor. After all, the two most talented pitchers they'll face this week areJorge De La Rosa (Monday), who is dealing with finger injuries, and Yovani Gallardo, who is 1-10 with a 6.78 ERA in 16 career starts against them. Toss in those hitting-friendly venues and this is a week where the Cardinals will surely attempt to outscore their opponents.
Is this the week that Allen Craig returns from a foot injury? Perhaps, but without definitive word he's a highly risky fantasy play in leagues with weekly transactions. Craig's high likelihood of requiring rest even after his return to action, however, keeps Matt Adams in the "useful plug-in" category, and Adams remains available in 87.7 percent of ESPN leagues. A week facing six right-handed starters in extremely homer-conducive ballparks is an excellent one in which to add Adams.
• The red-hot Oakland Athletics lineup, despite playing entirely at their spacious home ballpark, also enjoy a modest bump in matchups appeal, avoiding Los Angeles Angels aceJered Weaver during their week-opening series, then getting four games against the beleaguered Minnesota Twins pitching staff.
The home-game, plus four-against-lefties, schedule stacks things in favor of many of their right-handed hitters: Breakout sensation Josh Donaldson is a .338/.404/.619 hitter against lefties and .284/.353/.515 in 72 home games this season. Among those more widely available in ESPN leagues, and attractive pickups in AL-only formats, consider Alberto Callaspo (1.9 percent owned), a lifetime .300 hitter against left-handers; Nate Freiman(0.1), a .314/.359/.471 hitter against left-handers who has started 45 of the team's 47 games against lefty starters; and Derek Norris (0.0), a lifetime .266/.347/.477 hitter against southpaws.
